Conflicts among reactionaries intensifying and leading to turmoil and violence
Twists in events since the last week of February, coupled with the Estradas' attempts to evade responsibility in their plunder case and return to power, are signs that the accelerating intensification of conflicts between rival reactionary camps is rapidly leading to turmoil and violence.
By exhausting all legal options through the use of every justification it could think of, the defense has purposely delayed court proceedings on the Estradas' plunder case, based on their reckoning that it would take a long time before a more favorable political climate could be achieved. At the same time, the Estrada camp has been raising the level of violence in the accelerating intensification of conflicts between itself and the Macapagal-Arroyo camp.
The Estrada camp would like to exploit the factors that are fast resulting in the isolation of the Macapagal-Arroyo regime: the intensification of the economic and political crisis; growing protests against the policies of, and measures taken, by the regime; the expos� of explosive issues of corruption as well as other matters involving Macapagal-Arroyo and people close to her; and the rise in the level of violence between their two camps.
The Estradas have made a major issue out of the former president's request to have his knee ailment treated in the US. Estrada would like to avoid judgment by a court that he does not control, under a regime that is not under his direction. The Estrada camp has threatened that violence would erupt in the streets should Estrada be denied permission to go to the US. Estrada has been able to secure the endorsement of the majority of senators and congressmen, including many from the ruling coalition, and even Macapagal-Arroyo secretly supports his bid in the erroneous belief that Estrada's absence would lessen his ability to make trouble for the government.
The Estradas have long known that they could not fully hope to win their court battle while they are out of power. Sensing that the trial would be proceeding at a faster pace, they have protested the Supreme Court's creation of a special court under the Sandiganbayan to try their case, peopled by justices who would all render an unfavorable verdict.
With this, and a desire to intensify the "crisis", Estrada has admitted to signing bank documents using the name Jose Velarde, after which he dismissed his lawyers, refused to cooperate in any way with the court and focused his attention on winning the public's sympathy. Estrada declared that he trusts neither the Sandiganbayan nor the Supreme Court, that he would not defend himself and would instead rely on the justice of the streets for the disposition of his case. Estrada has imposed impossible demands such as the resignation of Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide and two other Supreme Court justices, Artemio Panganiban and Antonio Carpio (because they have allegedly prejudged him to be guilty). He has also demanded the abolition of the Sandiganbayan court especially created to try his plunder case.
Among the scenarios that the Estrada camp would like to achieve with its tactics are Macapagal-Arroyo's defeat at the hands of a pro-Estrada candidate in the 2004 polls or Macapagal-Arroyo's ouster even before the elections through an EDSA-type people's movement, a coup d'tat or other means.
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