2. Continuing rottenness of the ruling system
The overthrow of the Estrada regime has provided some sense of relief. But there is no general sense of euphoria over the ascendance of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to the presidency of the neocolonial republic. Her rise to power is merely a byproduct of the contest of strength between the outraged people and the Estrada regime.
The dearth of enthusiasm for the new regime is due to the fact that it has the same big comprador-landlord character as the previous regime and has a high potential for corruption and repression. The new puppet chieftain is a believer of �free market� globalization. And she is not at all appreciated for belatedly quitting her cabinet post in the Estrada regime.
Among the reactionaries, the Macapagal- Arroyo ruling clique is the biggest beneficiary of the downfall of Estrada. But at the same time, it inherits an economy that is in worse crisis than before and a government that is more bankrupt and more affl icted with corruption and factionalism than ever before.
The reactionary character of the regime is underscored by Macapagal-Arroyo�s exaggeration of the role of the military and police officers in the overthrow of Estrada and by her repeated obsequiously profuse expressions of gratitude to them, especially to the 11th hour defectors who withdrew support from Estrada only out of fear that their lower officers and men would otherwise disobey their commands.
Under instructions by the US, Macapagal- Arroyo is appeasing and promoting military offi cers who have been close to Estrada and who have manipulated him to adopt a costly all-out war policy. She is putting herself in the same weak position into which Estrada put himself relative to the reactionary armed forces.
Another glaring manifestation of the reactionary character of the new regime is that Macapagal-Arroyo seeks not only to unite her big comprador-landlord coalition, the United Opposition, but also to unite with the Nationalist People�s Coalition of Eduardo Cojuangco and the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan of the Marcoses in preparation for the 2004 presidential elections. The son of Eduardo Cojuangco is running for congress in Pangasinan under the fl ag of the NPC-Lakas and the Marcoses are running for governor and congress in Ilocos Norte under the banner of KBL-Lakas.
The new regime is not offering any set of economic policies different from those of the Estrada regime. It is for merely readjusting the �medium-term development plan� of the fallen regime. Macapagal-Arroyo remains true to her record of pushing legislation in pursuit of the line of �free market� globalization, under the Aquino and Ramos regimes.
The Philippine economy is reeling from the bursting of the US �new economy� bubble and the recessionary trend in the US and worldwide. For a whole year already, the value of assets in the US has plummeted from fantastic levels of overvaluation. Four trillion US dollars in value has been wiped out in the stock market. This is four times worse than the 1987 stockmarket meltdown. Nearly half of the US population who have been entrapped in the stock market are financially crushed.
The crisis of overproduction in the US is severe. There is huge overcapacity and excessive inventory, especially in high-tech goods in the face of the greatly diminished purchasing power of US consumers. This aggravates the long-running global crisis of overproduction and fi nancial crisis, especially in the debt-burdened countries that produce nothing for export, except raw materials and semimanufactures.
The slowdown of the US economy and decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy translate into dwindling orders for raw materials and consumer semimanufactures from the Philippines and elsewhere in the world. The European market offers no relief in absorbing Philippine exports because it is also adversely affected by the crisis in the US. The current global crisis of the world capitalist system is the worst after World War II.
The sharp reduction in export income is bound to widen the foreign trade defi cit. At the same time, foreign credit is drying up while debt service obligations are mounting. The cost of importing producer and consumer goods is soaring relative to export income. The cost of imported fuel will rise repeatedly. As a result of the breakdown of agricultural production, even rice, corn, cooking oil and sugar are now in the import list.
The Macapagal-Arroyo regime is at a loss as to how to raise tax revenues now that local production is deteriorating, mass unemployment is spreading and prices are soaring due to the double whammy of scarcity of goods and higher import costs. Like the Estrada regime, it is under orders by the IMF to cut down on defi cit spending and impose a heavier tax burden on the people.
It has already announced a policy of austerity. This policy means shifting the burden of the economic crisis to the broad masses of the Filipino people. Workers continue to be subjected to the policy of labor fl exibility, deprived of job security, jobs and a decent minimum wage level. The peasants and farm workers will continue to be subjected to worse conditions of feudal and semifeudal exploitation.
Government jobs are being massacred and appropriations for social services (health care, education, public housing, technical and credit assistance for food production and the like) are being cut down. The highest priority in the state budget is for debt service. At the same time, bureaucratic corruption and spending for the military and police equipment and operations are unabated.
As a result of the economic crisis, there is less ground for amicable accommodation among the reactionary forces. The political crisis is certain to increase in turbulence and destabilize the Macapagal-Arroyo regime. This regime is challenged from the outside by a conspicuous opposition of pro-Estrada forces. At the same time, it is also shaken by an unstable combination of rival political groups within the regime.
The Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino of Angara and Estrada�s party, the Partido ng Masang Pilipino, are the mainstay of the electoral coalition against the Macapagal-Arroyo regime. The Nationalist People�s Coalition of the biggest crony of Marcos and biggest patron of Estrada, Eduardo Cojuangco, has one foot in the opposition coalition and another foot in the ruling coalition.
The ruling coalition consists of the Lakas- NUCD of Ramos and De Venecia and Reporma of Gen. de Villa, together with such junior partners as Aksyong Demokratiko and Promdi. They maneuver against each other for the most lucrative positions in government and speculate that they can either use Macapagal-Arroyo to take a big share in the 2004 presidential elections or discard her after she becomes discredited prior to said elections.
The political base of Macapagal-Arroyo is fractious. She believes that she can reign like a queen over the confl icting factions within her regime, possibly win over some of the factions in the opposition and please the people through glossy but shallow �public relations�. She tends to be oblivious of the worsening socioeconomic crisis and the militant mass movement of the patriotic and progressive forces.
The reactionaries regard the current bourgeois elections as an amicable way of allocating power among themselves and as an effective way to divide and rule the masses. But so long as the revolutionary mass movement is rising, the bourgeois elections are a way for the people and the revolutionary forces to recognize the intensifying splits among the reactionaries.
Within the military and police forces, there are increasingly bitter factional conflicts between the Estrada loyalists and the new loyalists of Macapagal- Arroyo. Overtly and covertly, they quarrel over promotions, lucrative assignments, purchase contracts and control over various criminal syndicates. The rottenness of the ruling system is starkly manifested not only by rampant violations of human rights and international humanitarian law by the military and police but also by the direct connections of high military and police offi cers with criminal syndicates.
Macapagal-Arroyo�s obsequious deference to the military betrays her acute fear of them, notwithstanding the fact that since the 1980s the US has had a policy bias for controlling client states through economic and fi nancial levers rather than through military juntas or civilian fascist dictators. Separately, former president Gen. Ramos and Gen. de Villa have convinced her that she must coddle up to the military or else face a coup threat.
Thus, she has made Gen. de Villa her �little president� (executive secretary) and appointed retired generals to other high positions normally held by civilians. In an obvious attempt to curry favor with the military establishment, she has appointed Gen. Reyes and Gen. Villanueva as secretary of national defense and chief of staff of the armed forces, respectively.
These two generals were favorites of Estrada and were the principal pushers of his all-out war policy. Their promotions run counter to Macapagal- Arroyo�s declaration of ending the aforesaid Estrada policy and of desiring peace negotiations with the National Democratic Front of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
It is highly probable that after estimating that she has suffi ciently �consolidated� her position and after failing to trick the revolutionary movement into capitulation, she will rave for military suppression of the revolutionary movement, as did Aquino in 1987. Gen. Reyes can push her towards a militarist policy and benefit from the failure of that policy while she takes the blame. She seems to be unaware that the US is grooming him as a latter-day version of Gen. Ramos.
Macapagal-Arroyo expects to stay on top of the conflicting political factions and armed factions within her regime and to be able to marshal them for her candidacy in the 2004 presidential elections. But the worsening economic and social crisis and the factionalism within her regime are likely to unsettle her rule in a relatively short period of time.
The political crisis of the ruling system can accelerate under the pressure of the surging revolutionary mass movement of the people as they resist the escalating level of exploitation and oppression. In the same way that Estrada was removed from power, the Macapagal-Arroyo regime is vulnerable to being discredited or overthrown by the people and a broad united front as it offers no solution to the socioeconomic crisis and unleashes military terror against the people and the revolutionary forces.
While still consolidating its position, the regime is well aware that naked force cannot be unleashed against the protesting masses and the armed revolutionary movement without running the risk of being overthrown or of failing to make the mark for reelection as a result of the high political and fi nancial cost of military and police actions.
Thus, the regime has pretended to listen to the demands of the protesting masses. It has also declared the end of the all-out war policy of Estrada and offered to resume peace negotiations with the NDFP and the MILF. The problem of Macapagal-Arroyo is how she can be a �good president� in the midst of socioeconomic problems that she cannot solve and the militarists with which she surrounds herself.
So far, the regime has not offered any program to solve problems outside of the policy dictates of the IMF, World Bank and WTO. While she hypes her desire for peace negotiations, the military and police forces of the regime continue to wage campaigns of suppression against the people and the revolutionary forces.
| 
