Fraud in economic statistics bared
The Macapagal-Arroyo regime is so desperate to create a rosy picture of the Philippine economy. In a recent expos�, the government was found to have doctored economic data to make it appear that the country's economy has advanced.
Thus, doubts are widespread over Macapagal-Arroyo's much-vaunted announcement of a 4.6% growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2002 and a 5.2% increase in the gross national product (GNP).
Padding and shaving of trade figures. It was the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and foreign financial corporations that first raised questions about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) report of a $3.929 billion surplus in the balance of payments (BOP) last year. In reviewing the statistics, the BSP was discovered to have padded BOP figures by three to five billion dollars. According to the BSP's latest statistics, the BOP actually registered a $339 million deficit. This is not surprising especially with the year having been marked by the continued massive flight of foreign capital and debt payments that siphoned off a huge portion of the country's overall income.
It turns out that current account statistics were overstated by $5 billion. This has spurred a congressional investigation that puts to question other vaunted government statistics. The achievement of such figures entailed the understatement of overall imports and the padding of overall export figures.
Rectifying anomalies in the data would show that manufacturing actually dropped by a bigger percentage compared to what has been previously reported � a fact that could not be concealed even through the prettified statistics which show that manufacturing has been falling by three to five percent especially in recent months. Manufacturing accounts for a big portion of the country's exports and comprises 21% of the GDP. Thus, claims of a leap in the GDP and GNP for 2002 were clearly a big swindle. All things considered, the growth may even have been negative.
Fraud by foreign companies. Aside from distorted government statistics, data analysis has revealed even worse cases of fraud and sabotage perpetrated by foreign companies in the country.
Results of an investigation by the congressional oversight committee reveal that foreign companies have been concealing capital repatriation by overstating the value of their exports, despite the absence of incoming payments and in spite of uncertainty over the entry of an equivalent amount due to the system of consignment where payment is demanded only upon the mother companies' receipt of such "exports." Meanwhile, data on imports have been understated through the exclusion of figures on products that came in through tax-free zones (such as export-processing zones), mostly electronic parts and other raw materials for the local export industry. Through such means, an estimated $47.8 billion was fraudulently removed from the country by foreign companies from 1999 to 2001.
For 2002, an estimated $11.4 billion at the minimum was brought out by these companies in the same manner.
"Miscalculations." In the face of the questions raised by the IMF, international banks and even a number of congressmen, the regime is making the lame excuse that there has been a miscalculation and that none of the doctoring was done on purpose. According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the overstated export figures and understated import figures were accidental. The BSP said that since 2000, statistics on balance of trade and balance of payments surpluses have been overstated.
But according to Rep. Joey Salceda, who chairs the congressional oversight committee that is investigating the government statistical anomalies, the figures involved are too big to have been the result of simple miscalculation.
The pretty numbers announced by Macapagal-Arroyo definitely do not reflect the fact that the Filipino people are suffering from intense poverty.
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