In Mindanao FPJ won but lost
Jorge "Ka Oris" Madlos
Spokesperson
NDF-Mindanao
June 21, 2004
The recent May 10 national elections is a rehashed tale of how a winner lost and a loser won in an election attended by violence and fraud, where the real losers are: truth, democracy and the people.
According to the SWS exit polls, Luzon goes to FPJ, but Visayas and Mindanao goes to GMA offsetting the margin of FPJ in Luzon. These jived with the logic of the GMA camp, forecasting a more than a million votes margin over FPJ. This is also reflected in the COMELEC canvass and expectedly in the Joint Congressional Canvassing. This scenario presumed that there were only isolated and local level frauds, not qualified to be called "nationwide conspiracy" and cannot affect the outcome of the presidential derby.
Their general assumption is that Luzon represents more or less half of the total number of votes nationwide, while Visayas and Mindanao, more or less shared the other half of the votes. In Luzon, the GMA camp admitted of losing to FPJ by a margin of 1.7 million votes, but they claimed victory in Visayas with a wide margin of 2.3 million votes and in Mindanao with a margin of 470,000 votes. The result is that GMA's big margin in the Visayas plus that of Mindanao is more than enough to offset FPJ's lead in Luzon even allowing an overall victory for GMA of more than 1 million votes.
Our own study shows that GMA lost in the May 10 national elections. GMA's highly questionable 2.3 million margin in the Visayas is not enough to offset her big combined deficit in Luzon and Mindanao. But since the GMA camp claimed they won in Mindanao by almost 500,000 votes, as Mindanaoan we owe it to the whole country to tell the truth that GMA indeed lost in Mindanao.
First, let's take a critical analysis of the COMELEC data per region in Mindanao. Let us focus on the votes of GMA and FPJ considering that Lacson, Roco, and Villanueva are very much behind.
GMA got the biggest lead in the whole of Mindanao in ARMM, where she led by 251,515 votes over FPJ. Ironically, she "won" in the area where GMA unleashed her "all out war" and "anti-terrorism campaign" that launched urban bombings, committed rampant human rights violations and left 500,000 refugees. The combined efforts of the COMELEC, the 6th ID, PA and the Ampatuan-Datumanong political clans delivered winning votes through massive fraud. In 11 municipalities in Maguindanao, "election" was already done the day before the scheduled election. Many precincts were canvassed inside the 6th ID, PA headquarters where no media and poll watchers were allowed to enter. In Lanao del Sur where COCs are sold to the highest bidders, GMA led by 84,999 votes, and by 32,470 votes in the provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi where the military reigned supreme.
In the CARAGA Region, GMA got the second highest lead of 210,775 votes from among the regions in Mindanao through rampant vote buying ranging from 200 to 1,500 pesos and through selective "special operations" during power outages in Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Butuan City and Surigao City. All the big political clans and the personalities in the region such as the Barbers, the Amantes, the Plazas, the Pimentels and Butch Pichay supported GMA. Moreover, representative Glenda Ecleo of Dinagat Island delivered a big margin of votes in gratitude for the release of her parricide convicted son Ruben Ecleo Jr. prior to election. More still, it was reported that ballot boxes from Dinagat were tampered in transit to the provincial canvassing center.
In Region IX, GMA led by 88,927 votes over FPJ. In Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga del Norte, GMA led by 106,566 votes and 99,845 votes respectively where all the leading congressional and gubernatorial candidates were pro-GMA and where vote buying ranged from 500-1,700 pesos. Five barangay captains were killed in election related incidents in Zamboanga del Sur alone, the highest number of casualties among the non-Moro provinces. GMA's big defeat in Zamboanga City by 80,927 votes and by 29,841 votes in Zamboanga de Sibugi slashed GMA's lead. The biggest irony though, is the 7,112 votes lead of FPJ over GMA in the very province which Arroyo claims to be her second home province, Lanao del Norte. Here, the Dimaporo clan sees to it that FPJ got the statistically improbable zeroes in some precincts.
In Region X, GMA is ahead of FPJ by 19,451 votes only. With the help of Kuratong Baleleng druglords and the incumbent local leaders she got 55,819 votes over FPJ. She also led by 41,422 votes in Bukidnon with the help of the Zubiris. But she lost by 15,645 votes in Cagayan de Oro City and by 68,722 votes in the whole provinces of Misamis Oriental even as her most reliable politicians, Mayor Emano and now governor Oscar Moreno both won by a landslide. In Region XII, FPJ won over GMA by a margin of 91,660 votes. She was beaten in the bailiwicks of her own winning candidates. The Malaca�ang man Domiguez has only succeeded in reducing the lead of FPJ to 19,825 votes in Saranggani province, an Alcantara-Domiguez turf. In North Cotabato, pro-GMA governor Pi�ol has succeeded in reducing the lead of FPJ to 40,201 votes only. FPJ's margin of 177,568 votes was further reduced by half when the questionable 85,908 votes lead of GMA in Sultan Kudarat came in. It must be noted that the election returns in 5 municipalities of Sultan Kudarat were questionable, particularly in the municipality of Columbio where 4 persons were killed as the people defended their ballot boxes.
In Region XI, GMA is behind FPJ by 8,676 votes, although she won by 1,800 votes in Davao City inspite of the 150,000 votes margin of her trusted leader Mayor Duterte over his rivals. She also lost by 1,481 votes in Davao del Norte, the bailiwick of Governor del Rosario, the national president of the league of governors, her trusted leader. But she got 14,323 votes and 15,092 votes over FPJ in Compostela Valley province and Davao Oriental respectively where militarization is most intense and where 5 Bayan Muna leaders and members were killed by the military.
The COMELEC figure would show that GMA won by 470,402 votes in Mindanao. But the FPJ camp claims that they were robbed of over 800,000 votes in Mindanao alone. Our own study shows that had there been no massive vote buying and vote shaving, it would have been an easy win for FPJ in Mindanao. As shown in the above, the GMA winning formula in Mindanao is win through strong organization, money and selective special operations in non-Moro areas and prevent an FPJ landslide in Moro areas by employing massive fraud, money and terrorism through the combined role of the COMELEC, military and local warlords.
The FPJ strength in non-Moro areas is shown in his victory in major cities and in relatively fair elections in some provinces in Mindanao. Had there been no massive vote-buying and some vote shaving FPJ would have easily thrashed GMA in these areas. The spontaneous Moro vote for FPJ was demonstrated in the 1:2 vote ratio in Cotabato City and in other areas. Had there been relatively fair elections in Moro areas, an overwhelming Moro vote would have wiped out whatever gains GMA got through massive vote buying in non-Moro areas in Mindanao. The massive fraud was therefore necessary to prevent a landslide victory for FPJ in Moro areas.
Electoral fraud and violence that gave GMA a lead over FPJ in Mindanao also affected the progressive party lists. Due to poll fraud, the actual votes cast for these progressive part lists were greatly reduced and pegged to an equivalent of only 6 congressional seats for the progressive groups. These benefits the reformist and counter-revolutionary party lists which were supported directly or indirectly by the government and the military. It is not surprising then that the opposition groups and the progressive party lists are both complaining against election cheating.
In fact, the intimidation and acts of violence from the Arroyo camp against the FPJ group is much lesser compared to that against the progressive party lists. At least 5 leaders and members of progressive party lists were killed during the election campaign period in Mindanao alone aside from the numerous physical harm, threat, intimidation and black propaganda against them.
A clear example of fraud is the case of the Suara Bangsamoro Party which undisputedly topped majority of precincts in the Moro areas, ahead by as much as 50% against its next rival party list. The COMELEC rules that the Suara Bangsamoro Party did not pass their 2% vote requirement but ironically declared Amin Partylist the winner which is much way behind the Suara Bangsamoro Party list.
Wittingly or unwittingly, some sectors among the religious, business and mass-media lent a hand in justifying that the election was generally peaceful and clean; that fraud is isolated and not affecting the over-all presidential contest. They reasoned that the opposition has not presented hard evidences yet; that if there are evidences it should be presented to the proper courts; that confirming massive fraud is tantamount to helping the destabilization plots; or simply difficult for them to imagine living under an FPJ led government.
Objectivity is not only dependent upon the so-called hard evidences. At this point in time only an honest critical analysis can get us nearer to the truth where official statistical records and so-called hard evidences can get us nowhere. When dictator Marcos rigged the 1986 presidential election, fraud was done in such a sweeping and vulgar manner. Both planners and operators were more sophisticated now making it difficult for the opposition and independent poll watchdogs to gather hard evidences. Dictator Marcos was booted out of office not thru reactionary legal processes and institutions but thru the peoples' collective will.
Nonetheless, it is not difficult to believe that government funds, resources and facilities were used for electioneering purposes. The 780 million pesos agricultural fund and anomaly is just a tip of the iceberg. It is an undisputable fact that vote buying from both parties are rampant but this form of election fraud favors the more moneyed GMA camp. It is not also hard to believe that in many Maguindanao municipalities election was already done last May 9. It is also common knowledge that in Lanao del Sur and other Moro provinces COCs were sold to the highest bidders. The mass media themselves captured thru their cameras the military?s dirty role in the Moro island provinces.
Our own monitoring shows that the May 10 national elections was not generally peaceful as projected by the GMA regime but characterized by widespread election related violence. In 19 out of 25 provinces in Mindanao alone, there were 82 election related incidents where 36 individuals were killed from April 1 to May 12. 80% of this were perpetrated by the armed forces of the state and by political groups and parties allied with GMA. Intense military operations were launched in NPA areas to ensure the victory of GMA.
It is common sense that most if not all of these election related violence and fraud benefited GMA's election bid rather than FPJ. It is also not hard to calculate that the rampant fraud in Moro areas, vote-buying and selective fraud in non-Moro areas in Mindanao can greatly affect GMA's false claim of nationwide victory.
Granting that evidences are available, the COMELEC electoral tribunal and supreme court can hardly pass the test for impartiality and fairness. As it turned out, the opposition lawyers, the accusers of fraud in Moro land, are now the defendants. To whom will the aggrieved go? The last bastion of truth and justice is the people themselves through their collective resolve and action.
What is more scary and destabilizing than to have an unpopular president who would probably be unseated sooner than expected through another EDSA or a president who rightly or wrongly was chosen by the people? The people themselves has no illusions in FPJ, but they have decided to vote out GMA's graft ridden administration, puppetry to big landlords, big businesses and US imperialist dictates and insensitivity to the peoples welfare.
To those who fear of an FPJ-led government, we do share the same apprehension considering his close association with the plunderers and human rights violators and his ambiguous stand on basic peoples' issues. The people themselves shall judge FPJ as he fails their minimum expectations. Be it GMA or FPJ at the helm of this rotten system, the ever-worsening politico-economic crisis is inevitably bringing us to the eventual collapse of the semi-feudal and semi-colonial social system until a new just society emerges. Our recognition of the current concrete social realities can hasten the coming of the dawn.
The people have decided. This is the truth. And this is the over-riding reason why the NDF-Mindanao is ready to work with any group who honestly stay by the decision of the people.
Come June 30, GMA the loser shall be declared the winner. Like the great movie hero, FPJ the loser, can still be proud to claim victory for putting up a good fight in his life and in exposing the ills and futility of reactionary elections. As is, in all reactionary election, the real loser are: truth, democracy and the people.
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