Prospects of Macapagal-Arroyo before 2004 Elections

Armando Liwanag
Chairman
Central Committee
Communist Party of the Philippines
September 12, 2003

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is the revolutionary party of the proletariat, building the organs of the people's democratic government and waging the people's war against US imperialism and the local exploiting classes.

The main objective of the CPP, the New People's Army (NPA) and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) is to smash and destroy the counterrevolutionary state of big compradors and landlords. But the revolutionary forces must look into the crisis of the system and the internal contradictions among the reactionaries in order to push the disintegration of such state in complementation with the main effort to annihilate that state.

It is within the revolutionary context that the CPP observes the gravity of the current crisis and contradictions within the ruling system and recognizes the possibility that a broad united front can cause the ouster or resignation of Pres. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her replacement by Vice-Pres. Teofisto Guingona instead of by a military junta, a civilian-military junta or whatever formation that is unacceptable to the broad united front and the broad masses of the people.

By recognizing the possible succession of Guingona to Macapagal, the CPP does not by any degree or in any way give up its revolutionary mission of building the organs of the people's democratic government and ultimately doing away completely with the counterrevolutionary state. The CPP has repeatedly clarified that if it cannot as yet destroy this reactionary state it can weaken it by letting the reactionary factions fight each other and by letting one reactionary ruling clique fall after another under the pounding of the revolutionary mass movement.

The objective conditions are favorable for waging people's war. But the strength of the revolutionary forces is not yet enough to overthrow the reactionary state. So far, the revolutionary forces and the legal democratic forces have been able to encourage, promote and help realize the broad united front that overthrew Marcos in 1986 and Estrada in 2001. The two rascals would not have been overthrown if not for the consensus in the broad united front that Aquino would replace Marcos and Macapagal-Arroyo would replace Estrada.

It is wrong not to overthrow the ruling system when the strength of the revolutionary forces is already sufficient for overthrowing it. But when such strength is not yet available, it is also wrong to try, like the Trotskyites and other muddleheads do, to mislead the people into believing that the overthrow of the ruling system is immediately realizable and that the replacement of Marcos by Aquino, Estrada by Macapagal-Arroyo and Macapagal-Arroyo by Guingona ought to be opposed as a preemption of or detraction from the impending victory of the armed revolution.

As matters stand now, the strength of the revolutionary forces is not yet sufficient for overthrowing the ruling system. The legal democratic forces can try to form a broad united front and to remove the Macapagal Arroyo ruling clique before the 2004 elections. But if one takes into account the current strength of the revolutionary forces, the armed revolution cannot yet succeed in overthrowing the entire ruling system before, during or soon after the ouster of Macapagal-Arroyo.

Under the current circumstances, it would be better for Guingona to replace Macapagal-Arroyo than keep her ruling clique in power or empower a military junta, civilian-military junta or some other improvised formation unacceptable to the broad united front. However, at this moment, the ouster of Macapagal-Arroyo from power is still easier said than done.

There is yet no formidable array of political forces, that is comparable to the broad united front against Marcos in 1986 and against Estrada in 2001 and that is determined to oust Macapagal-Arroyo. Let us scan the landscape quickly.

The US proconsul, Ambassador Ricciardone, has proclaimed that Macapagal-Arroyo must be kept by all means. Cardinal Sin and other church leaders, former presidents Aquino and Ramos, the business organizations and the "social democrats" of Kompil still prefer to keep Arroyo in power up to the end of her term. They have repeatedly expressed fears of frequent regime change outside of the reactionary electoral process.

Some officers and members of the Council of Philippine Affairs and the People's Consultative Assembly criticize the current regime severely but still vacillate on the question of ousting Macapagal-Arroyo. They seem to be extracting certain concessions from the regime and also trying to weaken it in favor of certain presidential hopefuls.

There are reports that a group of military officers far bigger than the Magdalo group of July 27 is campaigning in the military for the withdrawal of support from the current regime in conjunction with protest mass actions. The reports have been used by the regime to frighten the public with the spectre of a coup d'etat, while the opposition uses the same reports to frighten the regime.

The current major opposition forces loyal to the ruling system are intensifying their campaigns against the regime. But by all indications, they are interested in deflecting attention from their criminal liabilities, protecting their ill-gotten wealth and discrediting the regime for their own electoral advantage in 2004. They face tremendous odds in seeking the political destruction of Macapagal Arroyo.

The legal democratic forces are determined to cause the ouster of Macapagal-Arroyo but are careful about having any direct, open and formal alliance with the most unsavory oppositionists that they fought in the past. They are interested in developing their own mass strength and carrying out mass actions independent of, even if parallel to or coincident with, those of the reactionary opposition.

The forces of the armed revolutionary movement persevere in people's war and thereby grow in strength through revolutionary armed struggle and the united front for armed struggle, come what may in the legal arena. The intensification of tactical offensives can inspire and add strength to a broad legal united front against an incumbent regime.

But the CPP has also the latitude to opt for letting the reactionaries fight each other and for taking advantage of their conflicts without as yet having to support a broad legal united front that is powerful enough to oust the incumbent regime.

This is not the first time that the national-democratic movement is taking a well-calculated position like the current one. The movement sided neither with the Aquino regime nor with the Enrile-RAM opposition after the Olalia murder in November 1986 and the peasant massacre in January 1987.

As matters stand now, Macapagal-Arroyo might be able to remain in power up to the end of her term. But she can no longer win the presidential elections in 2004. If by some dirty tricks she manages to win, she will face insurmountable odds and powerful challenges to her rule because the crisis shall have become far worse than now and she shall have become even more reprehensible to the broad masses of the people.

Time is in favor of the revolutionary movement no matter how hard the US imperialists and the local reactionaries try to unite against the revolutionary movement and the broad masses of the people. ###

Back to top