Ibon Foundation called the Marcos government’s lofty GDP target of 6% for 2025 “absurd” in a statement on May 14. This was the independent think tank’s reaction to the Marcos regime’s economic officials’ statements of “optimism” about reaching a 6%−8% GDP for the year.

“The economy is in a slump,” according to Ibon. GDP reached only 5.4% in the first quarter of the year and it will not miraculously hit the 6.2% GDP target in the next three quarters of the year. In fact, the pattern of economic growth is declining, from an average of 6.4% in 2010–2019 down to just 5.6% in 2023–2024. This decline underscores the excessive reliance on foreign investment and prioritizing corporate profits at the expense of the people, it said.

“The government mostly fails to achieve even the low end of its growth targets,” Ibon noted. In reality, indicators already point to a below-target GDP in the next quarter.

“Household spending, accounting for over 70% of GDP, slowed drastically,” the group said. This indicates the decline in the real value of wages and income and worsening purchasing power of families suffering from low wages, job insecurity, and informal employment. On the other hand, overall investment in the economy is also weak, at only 1.7% compared to 2.9% before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Government is failing to shield the economy from global shocks, especially regarding the economic policies of US president Donald Trump.

“[The Marcos government’s] insistence on remaining open amid rising protectionism, destabilizing global capital flows and rising geopolitical tensions pose significant risks [to the economy],” the group said.

Genuine GDP growth can only be achieved if the state implements meaningful reforms, such as real wage and income growth, expanded public services, strong local agriculture, and national industrialization.