Doing the math: AFP false numbers do not add up to claims of “weakened” NPA

This article is available in Pilipino

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) yesterday claimed that the New People’s Army is now down to 2,112 fighters and 22 guerrilla fronts, with 17 of these classified as “weakened.” In fact, all these numbers are conjured or false, churned out by the AFP leadership for publicity and psywar purposes.

Even at face value, these numbers of the AFP do not add up. A closer scrutiny will show that these are, in fact, inconsistent with their claims of “strategic victory.”

Let us do some math:

a) If the claimed number of 2,112 Red fighters were equally distributed in the supposed 22 guerrilla fronts left, then we get:

2,112 ÷ 22 = 96

or a company (three full platoons) of Red fighters for every front. I definitely would not classify this as weakened. That is, in fact, around the ideal number of NPA fighters of one company per front.

b) If the claimed number was not distributed equally (as the AFP claims, 17 are “weakened”), and assuming by “weakened” the AFP means the NPA has 60 Red fighters per front, then you get:

17 x 50 = 1,020

with the rest (1,092) divided among the five strong fronts:

1,092 ÷ 5 = 218

Red fighters per front (or more than 7 platoons), which is enough force to cover two fronts.

c) If the 5 “not weakened” fronts have “only” 120 each (4 platoons):

5 x 120 = 600

then the “weakened” 17 fronts will be left with 1,512 Red fighters or:

1,512 ÷ 17 = 88

Red fighters or close to a company (or three platoons) per front, which is not weak at all.

What can we conclude from these?

For one, it is clear that the AFP cannot even invent the correct numbers to support the false picture of a “strategic victory” against the NPA. The numbers they present inadvertently contradict their own claims, because in fact, these show that the supposed “remaining” NPA fronts are strong and formidable with at least three platoons each.

These numbers also reinforce the view that the AFP is never a reliable source for correct information and numbers about the state of the CPP and NPA. Recall how, a few years ago, the AFP downplayed the number of the NPA to be at 3,900, yet this year claims to have caused the surrender of 24,000 NPA members.

All these prove how that numbers churned out by the AFP on the CPP and NPA are mostly baseless and self-serving.

As declared by the Central Committee, the Party, the New People’s Army (NPA) and all revolutionary forces across the country remain strong, and are determined to carry forward the revolution, especially amid the grave social crisis and worsening forms of oppression and exploitation under the US-Marcos regime.

Doing the math: AFP false numbers do not add up to claims of "weakened" NPA